Alarm signs of the year’s first half

In the first half of 2001 the growth of outbound tourist flow made up 11%. The figure is not as remarkable as it was in the same period in 2010 when it reached 42.7%. Nevertheless some destinations showed an increase that wasn’t seen in the record-breaking first six months of 2010. However some of the figures surprised tour operators and some even made them envy.

As per RosStat’s data, in the first half of this year the Russians made 6069.7 thousand vacation trips abroad, which is almost 12% more compared to the same period last year. The overwhelming majority of popular destinations showed positive and not always explainable dynamics. However everything is clear with the outsiders who hit the bottom. So let us start with them.

There are only a few “minuses” in the following chart with Egypt, which lost 57% of its tourist flow, being the uppermost. No need to explain why.

Tunisia lost 40% for similar reasons. Jordan got caught in this “Middle East happenings” and as a result gave off 24% of its tourists, but in this case due to some other reasons as well like the failure of charter flights programs.

And of course Japan that sacrificed 52% of the tourist flow from Russia to the matters beyond their control – the earthquake and Fukushima-1.

The largest growth was shown by Cuba – almost 106%. Basically the figure gets in line with the tour operators’ statistics, even though in slightly smaller scale. According to PR-Director of TEZ Tour Company Ms. Marina Markova, many tourists visit Cuba independently, one can easily buy an Aeroflot ticket and book a hotel online, or even arrange his accommodation right on the spot.

The second place in terms of growth went to Sweden with its 91%. Near-by Norway is a little behind with fourth place and 76.6% growth. The comments about both destinations came from Deputy Director General of Ascent Travel Company Mr. Aleksey Petrov. He pointed out that the growth’s definitely there for both countries, but it is not that notable. “The Norwegians report 20% increase, while our company’s sales went up by around 15%. As for Sweden, not more than 20%” – says Mr. Petrov. He assumes that many Russians march past travel agents and the number of independent travelers is on the increase.

Thailand, having gained 87%, holds the third place in terms of growth of its inbound tourist flow. And this is quite understandable – TEZ Tour and Pegas Turistik came up with a charter flights from over 20 cities of Russia.

The fourth place went to Norway that we have already talked about. The fifth was given to Spain and its +76.3%. The ban of travel to Egypt and Tunisia and some tourists’ turndown of Morocco definitely played their roles. Besides, the “Turkish” tour operators’ entrance to the Spanish market contributed to the positive figures. Pegas, Coral and Aneks started a massive “attack” on the destination by launching charter flights from Russia’s regions. As a result – dumping, the prices have gone the lowest of the low. And the people started packing.

Let us add that the dumping is seen on many destinations this year. But a guaranteed half-year Schengen multi-visa has been a doubtless reward for those Russians who decide to go to Spain.

Greece landed on the sixth place having shown 75.5% increase in tourist arrivals. Director General of Mouzenidis Travel Company Mr. Alexander Tsandekidi believes it is connected firstly with the country’s friendly visa regime and secondly with its tour operators’ attractive pricing policy. Mr. Tsandekidi was very delicate: “an unplanned price drop by some 20%” – he said. The Head of Solvex Travel Company Ms. Irins Petrova was more harsh: “Such an increase of Greece is mostly driven by dumping. The dumping is just unreal, generally because the tour operators’ increased the number of charter flights while the ground handling volumes remained practically the same, even though the Russians discovered many new resorts on Greece islands”.

Marina Makarkina believes the demand for Dominicana (7^th place, +56.4%) to be driven by the craze for the Caribbean destinations. Furthermore the people came to love this country: they used to book only 5-star luxury hotels, and now 4-star accommodation is in great demand.

Germany’s eighth place (+52.2%) appeared to be a great surprise for the tour operators. “Everything is steady, no splashes, we would have definitely noticed such a significant upturn” – says Director General of Chaika-tour Company Mr. Alexander Tourchenko – “yes, some tourists book their vacations by themselves, but still not 50% more, plus the transportation should have become more intense, but we don’t see it. This statistics leaves me asking questions and rouses simple human jealousy”.

Either were the market players skeptical about Austria’s 43.6% growth: “Yes, there is an increase, but it’s drastically lower than this figures show” – said the Head of Austria department of Ascent Travel Ms. Tatiana Pokrovskaya – “And judging by the volumes of transportation, which have barely changed since last year, the growth just can’t be that big”. But she also mentioned independent tourists who book everything online.

Cyprus with its 42.7% increase ends the list of the most “grown” destinations in the first half of 2011. Director General of ICS Company Mr. Dmitry Shevchenko sees this growth as the continuation of the general market’s growth after the recession period. The second reason is the entrance to the Cyprus market of the new major player Pegas Turistik that came out with many regional programs. And Irina Petrova points out that Cyprus is “just sweet” this year. “The destination is on the growing spree, partly because of its stability which hasn’t been present in other countries. Plus the introduction of quite a large segment of All Inclusive hotels, the island needed so badly, contributed to the positive results”.

See the chart below for the actual figures for these top 10 destinations.

And now please pay attention to the very important matter. Most experts, speaking of the reasons for the growth on the destinations, mention either independent traveler or dumping or the excess transportation, which practically the same. And these are alarming symptoms, for they mean that the industry doesn’t make profits at best. Let’s not talk about the worst. And if this tendency keeps pace until the end of summer, which it did, the autumn and winter might easily become yet another severe test for the travel market.

Russian tourists’ departures abroad for the purpose of tourism

January – June 2011-2007

(thousand departures)